How do we prepare for flooding in Northeast Tennessee?

"The weather doesn't care if it's your birthday or Christmas." That's according to Anthony Cavallucci, the warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Morristown. He's been a meteorologist for almost 30 years. Monitoring and forecasting the weather is quite literally a full-time job. Cavallucci has been at the Morristown office for 12 years. Their team works 24 hours a day, seven days a week, with 11 forecasters rotating through those shifts. They're working around the clock, using all kinds of weather data to paint a picture of what you could see — and feel — over the following seven days. Some of their models can extend to 10 days. Morristown manages it while seven of their positions remain unfilled. Those positions include three forecasters; the meteorologist in charge, who essentially manages the office; ahydrologist, who studies the waterways; an observation program leader; and administrative assistant. In April, two employees at the office took early retirement offers for federal workers presented by the new presidential administration. Another two were hired in January, but those offers weren't filled at the time due to a federal hiring freeze. The hiring freeze was extended through mid-October, but the NWS will be able to resume hiring since they're considered "public safety" positions, Cavallucci said. While several positions on the team aren't filled, Cavallucci said they're still better off than some other NWS offices across the country, of which there are 122. Communities all across the U.S. rely on trusted weather forecasters at the NWS, like Cavallucci and his team. They forecast weather models that help people and local officials best prepare and respond to severe weather like thedeadly flash floodingthat hit Texas, New Mexico and North Carolina this month. "The networking and the partnership has to be top notch with the weather service," said Heather Sipe, director of the emergency management agency of Greene County. That's especially true when there's a risk of flooding.River Forecast Centersare an essential part of the process when it comes to keeping an eye on local waterways. They're a part of the NWS that works hand-in-hand with other forecast offices to keep an eye on local rivers. They also work with theNational Water Centerto try and determine how a river, creek or stream could flow next. To do that, river forecasters consider how much rain is going to fall at time, combined with other factors like soil moisture and runoff. Those river forecasts are updated every 12 hours. "We work really close with them," said Cavallucci. "We'll call them up and say, 'Hey, what are you seeing?' or 'Can you run the model a little longer, because we think that it's not capturing all the precipitation?'" Gages placed on local waterways are another tool in that toolbox. Those gages determine water levels and flow. Emergency management agencies use them, too. "If there's a threat or possibility of flash floods, we have to monitor and see where the waterways are at that point," said Catherine Umrichin, director of Carter County's emergency management agency. "We can check those gages to see where they're at. But if you're knowledgeable with the area, you're gonna know what that river can handle." Eyes on the ground are important for the work the NWS does, too. Trainedweather spottersgive local weather forecast offices real-time information about what they're seeing in their area. Weather spotters are volunteers all over the country who are trained by the NWS to do just that: spot weather and report it to their local forecast office. "While a [weather] event is going on, we're looking at the radar going, 'Man, it looks kind of wet. Hey, what are you seeing? Do you have any problems? Are there any roads closed yet?'" said Cavallucci. The moment conditions seem like they could get severe, Cavallucci convenes local officials. "They know when Morristown calls a webinar that something significant is about to happen. And that's the way we intend that to be," he said. That rings true for Sipe, who's been in emergency management for more than 20 years. "[The National Weather Service is] having weather briefings, webinars with emergency managers, sometimes days up to a week in advance, giving us information, saying "Hey, this is a possibility, hey, there's a potential of this, the potential's getting higher,'" she said. EMA directors are responsible for preparing for those potentials. That's why their relationships with the NWS needs to be "top notch," as Sipe says. They use all reports and data sent by the National Weather Service and are in constant communication with them. "We meet with the National Weather Service quarterly and communicate sometimes several times a week by email or phone. They play a huge role in our decision making," said Jamie Miller, director of Hawkins County's EMA. He's been with the agency for 18 years. "We use all the data they supply us to prepare and respond." It's the reason why we know flooding might be imminent. It's also the reason we can safely attend outdoor events like a high school football game or a race at Bristol Motor Speedway. "When I work at Bristol Motor Speedway or UT football games, we're in the Emergency Operations Center. I'm giving them real time weather," said Cavallucci. "I'm saying 'Hey, that lightning or thunderstorm, we should expect one in the next 20 minutes.' Then they get that on the Jumbotron. They say to take shelter now… they're like superstars, you know. And it is kind of nice to be able to help them make those right decisions." Evan Clyburn, Washington County's EMA director, echoed the importance of their relationship with the Morristown office. He also said their communication with them is just as important after a severe weather event, like a flood, occurs. "Not only do they provide us forecasted data and predictable data through the areas that we work and live in, but we do a follow-up on that as well so we can run a database and know what areas are going to be high probability areas for things such as flash flooding, high winds or significant damage," said Clyburn. When flooding is a threat, local EMAs said they try to streamline information from the NWS directly to the public, whether that's through their mass communication system or social media. "We also recommend that the public have multiple means of receiving weather warnings. As a backup we post to our EMA social media any warnings," said Miller. Clyburn stressed the importance of investing in a backup device, like a weather radio, that has access to weather updates. When a storm hits, cell service won't always be reliable. He said Washington County hands them out at different times of the year, as well as the health department and the Red Cross. "Have a weather radio, have a plan for you and your family members, be prepared and have an exit strategy of where you need to go if your area becomes flooded," said Clyburn. "Pre-plan an area for you and your loved ones to meet." EMAs in East Tennessee have also forged communicative relationships with each other. Those relationships were especially important when Hurricane Helene hit the area September last year. Sipe said river gages that Greene County relied on were taken out by the veracity of the flooding Helene caused. But being able to coordinate with neighboring counties upstream of the Nolichucky River helped her team. "That data [from the river gages] is a life safety measure for evacuations or whatever we need," said Sipe. "If it wasn't for Unicoi County EMA, Washington County EMA directors filtering information and us having the partnership that we do in the Upper East Tennessee region, we may not have got as much information on what was coming," she said. The recency of Helene, and the vivid memory of what it did to Northeast Tennessee, has made people hyper aware of flooding dangers, said Cavallucci. He said the same happened in 2011, when a huge tornado outbreak came through the Morristown forecast area. "People were really interested in learning all about tornadoes for that year or two after. But now, hardly anybody comes to my free spotter training classes," Cavallucci. After a year or two, people tend to forget, and complacency sets in, he said. Sipe agreed. "I just feel like sometimes after things pass for a while, people get complacent," said Sipe. "So we try to push that preparedness and that awareness.""The weather doesn't care if it's your birthday or Christmas."That's according to Anthony Cavallucci, the warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Morristown. He's been a meteorologist for almost 30 years.Monitoring and forecasting the weather is quite literally a full-time job. Cavallucci has been at the Morristown office for 12 years. Their team works 24 hours a day, seven days a week, with 11 forecasters rotating through those shifts.They're working around the clock, using all kinds of weather data to paint a picture of what you could see — and feel — over the following seven days. Some of their models can extend to 10 days. Morristown manages it while seven of their positions remain unfilled.Those positions include three forecasters; the meteorologist in charge, who essentially manages the office; a hydrologist, who studies the waterways; an observation program leader; and administrative assistant.In April, two employees at the office took early retirement offers for federal workers presented by the new presidential administration. Another two were hired in January, but those offers weren't filled at the time due to a federal hiring freeze.The hiring freeze was extended through mid-October, but the NWS will be able to resume hiring since they're considered "public safety" positions, Cavallucci said.While several positions on the team aren't filled, Cavallucci said they're still better off than some other NWS offices across the country, of which there are 122.Communities all across the U.S. rely on trusted weather forecasters at the NWS, like Cavallucci and his team. They forecast weather models that help people and local officials best prepare and respond to severe weather like the deadly flash flooding that hit Texas, New Mexico and North Carolina this month."The networking and the partnership has to be top notch with the weather service," said Heather Sipe, director of the emergency management agency of Greene County.That's especially true when there's a risk of flooding. River Forecast Centers are an essential part of the process when it comes to keeping an eye on local waterways.They're a part of the NWS that works hand-in-hand with other forecast offices to keep an eye on local rivers. They also work with the National Water Center to try and determine how a river, creek or stream could flow next.To do that, river forecasters consider how much rain is going to fall at time, combined with other factors like soil moisture and runoff. Those river forecasts are updated every 12 hours."We work really close with them," said Cavallucci. "We'll call them up and say, 'Hey, what are you seeing?' or 'Can you run the model a little longer, because we think that it's not capturing all the precipitation?'"Gages placed on local waterways are another tool in that toolbox. Those gages determine water levels and flow. Emergency management agencies use them, too."If there's a threat or possibility of flash floods, we have to monitor and see where the waterways are at that point," said Catherine Umrichin, director of Carter County's emergency management agency."We can check those gages to see where they're at. But if you're knowledgeable with the area, you're gonna know what that river can handle."Eyes on the ground are important for the work the NWS does, too. Trained weather spotters give local weather forecast offices real-time information about what they're seeing in their area.Weather spotters are volunteers all over the country who are trained by the NWS to do just that: spot weather and report it to their local forecast office."While a [weather] event is going on, we're looking at the radar going, 'Man, it looks kind of wet. Hey, what are you seeing? Do you have any problems? Are there any roads closed yet?'" said Cavallucci.The moment conditions seem like they could get severe, Cavallucci convenes local officials."They know when Morristown calls a webinar that something significant is about to happen. And that's the way we intend that to be," he said.That rings true for Sipe, who's been in emergency management for more than 20 years."[The National Weather Service is] having weather briefings, webinars with emergency managers, sometimes days up to a week in advance, giving us information, saying "Hey, this is a possibility, hey, there's a potential of this, the potential's getting higher,'" she said.EMA directors are responsible for preparing for those potentials. That's why their relationships with the NWS needs to be "top notch," as Sipe says. They use all reports and data sent by the National Weather Service and are in constant communication with them."We meet with the National Weather Service quarterly and communicate sometimes several times a week by email or phone. They play a huge role in our decision making," said Jamie Miller, director of Hawkins County's EMA. He's been with the agency for 18 years."We use all the data they supply us to prepare and respond."It's the reason why we know flooding might be imminent. It's also the reason we can safely attend outdoor events like a high school football game or a race at Bristol Motor Speedway."When I work at Bristol Motor Speedway or UT football games, we're in the Emergency Operations Center. I'm giving them real time weather," said Cavallucci."I'm saying 'Hey, that lightning or thunderstorm, we should expect one in the next 20 minutes.' Then they get that on the Jumbotron. They say to take shelter now… they're like superstars, you know. And it is kind of nice to be able to help them make those right decisions."Evan Clyburn, Washington County's EMA director, echoed the importance of their relationship with the Morristown office. He also said their communication with them is just as important after a severe weather event, like a flood, occurs."Not only do they provide us forecasted data and predictable data through the areas that we work and live in, but we do a follow-up on that as well so we can run a database and know what areas are going to be high probability areas for things such as flash flooding, high winds or significant damage," said Clyburn.When flooding is a threat, local EMAs said they try to streamline information from the NWS directly to the public, whether that's through their mass communication system or social media."We also recommend that the public have multiple means of receiving weather warnings. As a backup we post to our EMA social media any warnings," said Miller.Clyburn stressed the importance of investing in a backup device, like a weather radio, that has access to weather updates. When a storm hits, cell service won't always be reliable. He said Washington County hands them out at different times of the year, as well as the health department and the Red Cross."Have a weather radio, have a plan for you and your family members, be prepared and have an exit strategy of where you need to go if your area becomes flooded," said Clyburn. "Pre-plan an area for you and your loved ones to meet."EMAs in East Tennessee have also forged communicative relationships with each other. Those relationships were especially important when Hurricane Helene hit the area September last year.Sipe said river gages that Greene County relied on were taken out by the veracity of the flooding Helene caused. But being able to coordinate with neighboring counties upstream of the Nolichucky River helped her team."That data [from the river gages] is a life safety measure for evacuations or whatever we need," said Sipe."If it wasn't for Unicoi County EMA, Washington County EMA directors filtering information and us having the partnership that we do in the Upper East Tennessee region, we may not have got as much information on what was coming," she said.The recency of Helene, and the vivid memory of what it did to Northeast Tennessee, has made people hyper aware of flooding dangers, said Cavallucci.He said the same happened in 2011, when a huge tornado outbreak came through the Morristown forecast area."People were really interested in learning all about tornadoes for that year or two after. But now, hardly anybody comes to my free spotter training classes," Cavallucci.After a year or two, people tend to forget, and complacency sets in, he said. Sipe agreed."I just feel like sometimes after things pass for a while, people get complacent," said Sipe."So we try to push that preparedness and that awareness."More CoverageMore CoverageThis is part one of a two-day series. Don't miss part two in Friday's paper.More InformationYou can become a trained weather spotter for the Morristown NWS field office through a virtual spotter training course.After completing four learning sessions, you will complete an exam for credit. It will take up to two weeks to receive a spotter ID card and certificate if you pass.