Poll: Hobbs has big lead in Arizona gubernatorial race

Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs has a double-digit lead over U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Surprise, in Arizona's gubernatorial general election, according to a new poll. Noble Predictive Insights released a poll on Thursday showing Hobbs leading Biggs by 13 points among Arizona likely voters: 48% to 35%. NPI CEO Mike Noble told The Center Square that it is not a surprise that Hobbs has a big lead over Biggs, given that the congressman just came out of a primary where he defeated U.S. Rep. David Schweikert, R-Scottsdale. Hobbs did not have any opponent in her primary, Noble noted. Despite the poll showing Hobbs having a big lead, Michael Beyers, a spokesperson for Hobbs' campaign, said the race between the governor and Biggs "will be close." "Hobbs isn't taking anything for granted. She'll continue meeting voters across the state and working across the aisle to cut taxes, eliminate medical debt for nearly 700,000 Arizonans, secure the border and protect our water," Beyers told The Center Square. The spokesperson noted Biggs has supported "tariffs that are raising costs, and pushed a 23% sales tax on everything Arizonans buy — which is exactly why voters will reject his extreme, cost-hiking agenda in November." The Center Square reached out to Biggs' campaign but did not hear back before publication time. According to Noble, the race between Biggs and Hobbs "will tighten up," noting Arizona is a battleground state. "I expect this race to get closer and to remain competitive," he said. Among likely Republican voters, the poll showed 15% supported Hobbs, compared with 3% of likely Democratic voters backed Biggs. Noble said the Republicans who are going to vote for Hobbs are part of the GOP's moderate wing. This group of Republicans is not large enough to affect primary races, but can affect general elections, Noble explained. The poll showed 75% of likely Republican voters are backing Biggs, while 86% of likely Democratic voters are supporting Hobbs. Noble said Biggs has a base issue, which is a problem in a state where races are closely decided. The poll showed likely voters trusted Hobbs over Biggs on water issues, housing, education, economics and data centers. According to the survey, voters trusted Hobbs more than Biggs by a difference varying from 9% to 19% across these categories. The only category in which Biggs saw more voters trust him over Hobbs was immigration and border security, but only by 1 percentage point. "Historically it's a surprise to see a Democrat ahead on economic issues," Nobel told The Center Square. He added that it is "also telling" that Hobbs is close to Biggs in border security. Despite Hobbs leading in these categories, Noble said voters may change their minds as Election Day approaches after being inundated with campaign messaging. He pointed out that Biggs has not "had time to message." "When one person has had the stage to talk, and the other hasn't, that's how you get numbers like these," Noble said. As the race gets closer to Election Day, polling numbers will get closer, he predicted. Noble noted it is a "tough election environment for Republicans," citing people's frustrations with the economy and the Iran conflict. Regarding lieutenant governor choices, the poll showed only 16% of likely voters said the gubernatorial candidate's running mate would greatly impact their vote. Because of Proposition 131, voters on Nov. 3 will vote for a governor-lieutenant governor ticket, and starting next year, Arizona will have its first lieutenant governor. Up to now, the state's second-in-command was the secretary of state. Prop. 131 was passed in 2022. Hobbs' pick of former Mesa Mayor John Giles is helping the Democratic governor with some independent and moderate Republicans, Noble said. The poll found 35% of likely independent voters said Hobbs' choice of Giles makes them more likely to support her. "Only time will tell if Katie Hobbs' attempt at a bipartisan ticket will pay off," Noble explained. "The voters who like her choice of a (former) Republican as lieutenant governor might still prefer a Republican at the top of the ticket. The poll also discovered 55% of Republican voters were more likely to vote for Biggs because of his choice for a Republican running mate, former state Sen. Sine Kerr. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 3.04%.