Yankees vs. Rays ALDS predictions: Ben Rice, Cam Schlittler and the matchups that could decide the series

By record, the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees were the two best teams in the American League. Now, they'll play a best-of-five Division Series starting Saturday, with the winner one step closer to the World Series.The Yankees (93-68) finished second in the AL East, with the Rays (98-64) winning the division and securing the No. 1 seed in the league. Tampa edged New York, 7-6, in the season series. The winner will advance to the Championship Series to face either the Cleveland Guardians, the AL Central champion, or the surprising Chicago White Sox.The scheduleGame 1: Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET; TBS/truTV/HBO MaxGame 2: Monday, 8 p.m. ET; TBS/truTV/HBO MaxGame 3: Wednesday, 8 p.m. ET; TBS/truTV/HBO MaxGame 4*: Thursday, 8 p.m. ET; TBS/truTV/HBO MaxGame 5*: Saturday, Oct. 10, 8 p.m. ET; TBS/truTV/HBO Max(*If necessary)The biggest questionsCan the Rays prevent Ben Rice from wreaking havoc?This is not an issue exclusive to the Rays; Ben Rice is a problem for every team that faces the Yankees. Still, in 51 plate appearances against the Rays this season, Rice produced a 1.320 OPS with seven home runs, nearly twice as many as he hit against any other team. With Aaron Judge's status up in the air heading into the series, Rice stands out as the Yankees' most capable masher against the Rays' strong pitching staff.Can the Yankees solve their Drew Rasmussen problem? Since 2000, no pitcher has dominated the Yankees like the Rays' Game 1 starter. Rasmussen has a 1.81 ERA in 11 career outings against the Yankees. In addition to pitching Game 1, Rasmussen will likely start Game 4 for Tampa Bay, too.Even if Judge isn't ready to play, the Yankees have enough offense to inflict damage. Rice has emerged as a star, and his Game 1 performance against the Boston Red Sox in the Wild Card Series was breathtaking. Cody Bellinger and Luis García Jr. are power threats at the top of the Yankees' lineup.Rasmussen is similar to Yankees ace Cam Schlittler in that he throws three different fastballs, but he also has a nasty changeup, which is his best strikeout pitch.If Rasmussen is on his game, it won't be easy for the Yankees to take Game 1. But they just showed in the wild-card round that they're capable of hitting elite pitching.The main charactersRays 3B Junior CamineroAfter receiving a brief taste of the postseason when the Rays called him up as a 20-year-old in 2023, Caminero is returning to October baseball as arguably the game's best young star. In big moments, he excels. This season, he raised his game, too.Last year, Caminero hit 45 home runs with a .846 OPS. In 2026, Caminero is worthy of the AL MVP Award because he hit 42 home runs with a .885 OPS, courtesy of an improved on-base percentage (.311 last year and .360 this year).The Yankees, however, have held him in check this season; in 13 games and 54 plate appearances against Caminero, New York's pitchers limited the slugger to a .565 OPS.Yankees SP Cam SchlittlerHere's how New York Knicks NBA champion Josh Hart described the Yankees' ace and presumptive AL Cy Young Award winner: "I know Jesus is at God's right hand, but I think Cam Schlittler might be at his left." That's how much trust Yankees fans such as Hart have in Schlittler when he's on the mound.Schlittler is expected to start Game 2 and, if necessary, Game 5. The sense of invincibility when Schlittler takes the ball is unlike anything the Yankees have felt in years, including during Gerrit Cole's 2023 Cy Young season. Schlittler, 25, is in a different stratosphere of dominance.Schlittler has made three starts this season against Tampa Bay, and one was arguably his best this season. In a 5-1 win on July 6, he gave up one earned run over eight innings with eight strikeouts and no walks at Tropicana Field.One stat that greatly benefits the righty against the Rays' lineup: No team in MLB had worse batted-ball contact quality on fastballs over 95 mph than Tampa Bay. If Schlittler is sharp, he should fare well against the Rays.Why the Rays can winThe Rays' roster measures up well against anybody. Manager Kevin Cash has demonstrated a keen sense of how to best utilize his group, too.They have pitching, even if many on their staff aren't well known to casual fans -- which is hardly new for the Rays. Despite being an All-Star in each of the last two seasons, Rasmussen is arguably baseball's least-discussed No. 1 starter. Freddy Peralta has rolled since the Rays acquired him from the New York Mets, and Nick Martinez figures to have a prominent role in the series.Questioning the Rays' no-name bullpen? Don't, especially if Tyler Wells and Garrett Cleavinger are available. Bryan Baker, a 31-year-old journeyman, has thrived as the closer (1.44 ERA, 0.914 WHIP, 41 saves) and the Rays boasted baseball's best record in one-run games (25-14).Offensively, the Rays' style should put pressure on the Yankees' defense; no team made contact more (81.8 percent contact rate), and no team hit for a better average (.258). Home runs are king in the postseason, but that's where Caminero comes in, with Liam Hicks, Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda also offering some slug.Why the Yankees can winThe Yankees can match and even exceed the Rays' overall pitching. The Yankees had the best ERA (3.30) among major-league rotations this season, and the second-lowest bullpen ERA (3.13). Tampa Bay's strength is its pitching, but New York may have the advantage there.The Yankees also have more home run threats in their lineup. A common postseason strategy is to hit more home runs than your opponent.Tampa Bay is a formidable opponent, and New York is taking the Rays seriously. Their division win was no fluke. But overall, the Yankees have the better collection of talent. Their lineup has fewer holes, especially with Austin Wells excelling over the past few months and the team's ability to platoon for favorable matchups.Bold predictionsRays win in four: This is as close as it gets, so I'd give the edge to the Rays -- who were baseball's most consistent team -- because of their home-field advantage and Cash, a manager adept at making adjustments and finding the right matchups. -- Will SammonYankees win in five: This series should be a grind. This is a much tougher matchup for the Yankees than what they just experienced in the wild-card round. But having Schlittler to pitch a potential Game 5 feels like a cheat code. No starter had a lower road ERA than Schlittler's 1.16. He'll be ready for the moment. -- Chris KirschnerThis article originally appeared in The Athletic.